Devastation, Death, and Deficits: The Impact of ACA Repeal on Pennsylvania
The Affordable Care Act of 2010 (ACA or Obamacare) is one of the most important pieces of domestic legislation enacted since the 1960s. It has had a dramatic impact in reshaping the provision of health care in the United States at a time when health care amounts to 18% of the United States economy.
This report aims to quantify the benefits of the ACA to Pennsylvanians, in part by showing just how costly repeal of it will be.
Our key conclusions are that:
- Repeal of key parts of the ACA—Medicaid expansion and the tax credit subsidies for insurance on the health care exchanges—would cause more than 1.1 million Pennsylvanians to lose the health insurance they receive through these programs. An additional 3,425 premature deaths will occur each year as a result.
- Hospitals and other healthcare providers will see their revenues decline substantially. Some hospitals and physician practices, especially in urban centers and rural areas, may not survive.
- Repeal of the ACA will cost over 137,000 Pennsylvanians their jobs, reduce the state’s gross domestic product (GDP) by over $75 billion, and cut state and local tax revenues by $2.4 billion over a five-year period.
- Repeal of the ACA will add over $1 billion to the state’s structural deficit.
We do not make any projections based on any replacement of the ACA by another proposal because we now little or nothing about what such a proposal would look like.