Revenue Tracker: February Falls Short But March Will Be Largest Month for Collections

Is PA Revenue Growth on Track?General Fund collections for nearly every major tax type fell short of estimate in February. Shortfalls in the collection of sales, personal income, and realty transfer taxes may be partly attributable to the excessive amount of inclement weather in February, but the bulk of the month's deficit is due to expectations of strong growth for 2014 falling short. This is the third consecutive month in which revenues have fallen short of targets.

In total, February fell $34.5 million, or 2%, short of the monthly target. For the fiscal year, revenues are down $75 million, or 0.5%, from estimate, a manageable amount at this point. The Corbett administration has indicated it could lapse unspent funds, which could help offset some the revenue deficit going into the 2014-15 Fiscal Yar.

All eyes will be on collections for March, the largest revenue month of the year. The state estimates revenues will total $4.2 billion for the month, two-and-a-half times more than was collected in February. If collections fall short in March by about 2%, as they did in February, the state's year-to-date revenue shortfall would more than double. April, the second most important revenue month of the year, will be another one to watch closely. Combined, both months' revenue tallies could significantly impact the 2014-15 budget.

2013-14 Revenue Tracker

TOTAL REVENUE COLLECTIONS: Estimate to Actual, Fiscal Year 2013-14
  Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 14
Estimate $1,923,200 $1,760,900 $2,412,600 $2,056,700 $1,698,200 $2,431,400 $2,404,300 $1,683,100
Actual $1,922,851 $1,758,933 $2,427,752 $2,085,661 $1,699,014 $2,391,364 $2,360,843 $1,648,600
Monthly Difference ($349) ($1,967) $15,152 $28,961 $814 ($40,036) ($43,457) ($34,500)
Cumulative Difference ($349) ($2,316) $12,836 $41,797 $42,611 $2,575 ($40,882) ($75,382)
Fiscal Year-to-Date Percent Difference from Estimate -0.5%
TOTAL REVENUE COLLECTIONSComparison to Fiscal Year 2012-13
  July August September October November December January February
Actual FY 2012-13 $1,844,307 $1,795,209 $2,429,295 $2,038,519 $1,679,150 $2,441,586 $2,336,332 $1,629,465
Actual FY 2013-14 $1,922,851 $1,758,933  $2,427,752 $2,085,661 $1,699,014 $2,391,364 $2,360,843 $1,648,600
Monthly Difference $78,544 ($36,276) ($1,543) $47,142 $19,864 ($50,222) $24,511 $19,135
Cumulative Difference $78,544 $42,268 $40,725 $87,867 $107,731 $57,509 $82,020 $101,155
Fiscal Year-to-Date Percent Difference from 2011-12 0.6%

Delving Deeper into the Numbers

Below you will find tables detailing General Fund revenue collections in February by tax and revenue type, compared to the monthly estimate and collections in the prior fiscal year.

2013-14 Revenue Collections Compared to Estimate

2013-14 Revenue Collections Compared to Prior Year