Revenue Tracker: Collections Fall Short of Estimates in February for a Second Straight Month

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March 4, 2013

For a second straight month, Pennsylvania General Fund revenue collections fell short of targets, dropping the fiscal year-to-date revenue surplus to $105 million, or less than 1%.

February collections missed estimates by $48 million, or 2.8% of monthly estimates. All major General Fund tax streams, with the exception of corporate taxes, fell short of projections in February, which is typically the smallest month for revenue collections. 

That the shortfalls were so widespread and overall collections fell short of estimate for a second straight month make this a bit concerning as we head into the two most important months for revenue collections – March and April.

2012-13 Revenue Tracker
TOTAL REVENUE COLLECTIONS
Estimate to Actual, Fiscal Year 2012-13
  Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13
Estimate $1,845,200 $1,827,500 $2,385,400 $1,967,000 $1,702,300 $2,329,200 $2,355,100 $1,677,200
Actual $1,844,307 $1,795,209 $2,429,295 $2,038,519 $1,679,150 $2,441,586 $2,336,332 $1,629,465
Monthly Difference ($893) ($32,291) $43,895 $71,519 ($23,150) $112,386 ($18,768) ($47,735)
Cumulative Difference ($893) ($33,184) $10,711 $82,230 $59,080 $171,466 $152,698 $104,963
Fiscal Year-to-Date Percent Difference from Estimate 0.7%
 
TOTAL REVENUE COLLECTIONS
Comparison to Fiscal Year 2011-12
  July August September October November December January February
Actual FY 2011-12 $1,720,192 $1,805,916 $2,322,959 $1,806,201 $1,719,436 $2,270,389 $2,170,813 $1,703,244
Actual FY 2012-13 $1,844,307 $1,795,209 2,429,295 2,038,519 $1,679,150 $2,441,586 $2,336,332 $1,629,465
Monthly Difference $124,115 ($10,707) $106,336 $232,318 ($40,286) $171,197 $165,519 ($73,779)
Cumulative Difference $124,115 $113,408 $219,744 $452,062 $411,776 $582,973 $748,492 $674,713
Fiscal Year-to-Date Percent Difference from 2011-12 4.3%
 
TAXES ONLY
Estimate to Actual, Fiscal Year 2012-13
  Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13
Estimate $1,813,000 $1,797,500 $2,369,700 $1,954,200 $1,693,000 $2,310,200 $2,336,100 $1,659,300
Actual $1,812,043 $1,772,259 $2,402,557 $2,011,969 $1,658,268 $2,412,749 $2,326,127 $1,602,523
Monthly Difference ($957) ($25,241) $32,857 $57,769 ($34,732) $102,549 ($9,973) ($56,777)
Cumulative Difference ($957) ($26,198) $6,659 $64,428 $29,696 $132,245 $122,272 $65,495
Fiscal Year-to-Date Percent Difference from Estimate 0.4%
 
TAXES ONLY
Comparison to Fiscal Year 2011-12
  July August September October November December January February
Actual FY 2011-12 $1,693,106 $1,772,098 $2,308,922 $1,790,321 $1,713,006 $2,255,373 $2,150,307 $1,687,686
Actual FY 2012-13 $1,812,043 $1,772,259 $2,402,557 $2,011,969 $1,658,268 $2,412,749 $2,326,127 $1,602,523
Monthly Difference $118,937 $161 $93,635 $221,648 ($54,738) $157,376 $175,820 ($85,163)
Cumulative Difference $118,937 $119,098 $212,733 $434,381 $379,643 $537,019 $712,839 $627,676
Fiscal Year-to-Date Percent Difference from 2011-12 4.1%

For the 2012-13 Fiscal Year, overall collections are $105 million, or 0.7%, above estimate, with tax collections exceeding estimate by $65 million, or 0.4%. 

Personal income taxes (PIT) fell $37 million, or 5%, short of estimate in February, while sales tax collections were below estimate by $9 million, or 1.3%. For the fiscal year, PIT is $39 million, or 0.6%, above estimate, while sales tax is $193 million, or 3.2%, lower than expected. 

Corporate taxes continued to exceed monthly estimates, this time by $2.7 million, or 4.4%. For the fiscal year, corporate taxes are now $270 million, or 19.6% higher than expected. With March and April critical months for corporate tax collections, this amount could grow or shrink significantly. Added to this is the uncertainty regarding quarterly corporate tax payments since the reduction of the capital stock and franchise tax rate at the beginning of 2013.

In his recently released budget proposal, Governor Tom Corbett projected finishing the fiscal year with a $232 million revenue surplus. March and April collections will largely determine if these revised targets are met. If collections fall short over the next two months, it could prompt further reductions in the 2013-14 budget.

February 2013 Actual Estimate Over/(Under) %
Sales Tax $644,237 $653,000 ($8,763) -1.3%
Personal Income Tax $715,247 $752,700 ($37,453) -5.0%
Corporate Taxes $64,523 $61,800 $2,723 +4.4%
Inheritance Tax $60,907 $65,800 ($4,893) -7.4%
Realty Transfer Tax $15,518 $16,400 ($882) -5.4%
Other Taxes: Cigarette, Malt Beverage, Liquor, and Table Games $102,091 $109,600 ($7,509) -6.9%
Total Tax Revenue $1,602,523 $1,659,300 ($56,777) -3.4%
Non-Tax Revenue $26,942 $17,900 $9,042 +50.5%
Total General Fund $1,629,465 $1,677,200 ($47,735) -2.8%
 
FISCAL YEAR-TO-DATE Actual Estimate Over/(Under) %
Sales Tax $5,909,636 $6,102,800 ($193,164) -3.2%
Personal Income Tax $6,748,845 $6,710,100 $38,745 +0.6%
Corporate Taxes $1,647,995 $1,378,100 $269,895 +19.6%
Inheritance Tax $511,831 $550,400 ($38,569) -7.0%
Realty Transfer Tax $223,556 $206,500 $17,056 +8.3%
Other Taxes: Cigarette, Malt Beverage, Liquor, and Table Games $956,632 $985,100 ($28,468) -2.9%
Total Tax Revenue $15,998,495 $15,933,000 $65,495 +0.4%
Non-Tax Revenue 195,368 155,900 39,468 25.3%
Total General Fund $16,193,863 $16,088,900 $104,963 0.7%