May Revenue Collections Come in $125 Million Below Estimate

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Revenue Tracker

June 1, 2010

With only one month left in the 2009-10 fiscal year, Pennsylvania revenue collections are $1.2 billion, or about 4.8%, below estimate for the year.

Tax collections alone are $1.1 billion short of projections for 2009-10 and trail 2008-09 collections by $905 million, or nearly 4%.

In May, total revenue collections were off by $125 million, or 6.5%, for the month.

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania General Fund Revenue, Fiscal Year 2009-10 (in $ thousands)
Estimate to Actual, Fiscal Year 2009-10

Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10* Mar 10* Apr 10* May 10*
Estimate $1,653,700 $2,020,700 $2,242,100 $1,591,900 $4,147,000 $3,310,300 $1,929,500
Actual $1,596,919 $1,983,510 $2,121,856 $1,489,643 $3,904,042 $2,920,078 $1,804,600
Monthly Diff. ($56,781) ($37,190) ($120,244) ($102,257) ($242,958) ($390,222)
 ($124,900)
Cumulative Diff. ($216,966) ($254,156) ($374,400) ($476,657) ($719,615) ($1,109,837) ($1,234,737)
Fiscal Year-to-Date Percent Difference from Estimate -4.8%
Comparison to Fiscal Year 2008-09

Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10
Actual FY 08-09 $1,640,930 $2,108,965 $2,173,751 $1,502,249 $3,873,311 $2,951,980 $1,613,248
Actual FY 09-10 $1,596,919 $1,983,510 $2,121,856 $1,489,643 $3,904,042 $2,920,078 $1,804,600
Monthly Diff. ($44,011) ($125,455) ($51,895) ($12,606) $30,731 ($31,902) $191,352
Cumulative Diff. $1,374,003 $1,248,548 $1,196,653 $1,184,047 $1,214,778 $1,182,876 $1,374,228
Fiscal Year-to-Date Percent Difference from 2008-09 5.9%

*Estimates re-certified in January 2010 based on the passage of Act 1, 2010 (table games). This legislation is expected to add $84.2 million in non-tax revenue between February and June 2010.

Download Revenue Tracker for the full 2009-10 Fiscal Year.

All Major Taxes Fall Short in May

Personal income, sales and corporate tax receipts trailed estimates in May. Corporate taxes missed the mark by $54 million, or 38%, during a month when most utility property tax and some residual corporate net income and capital stock tax payments were due.

Sales tax came in $27 million, or 4%, below estimate, while personal income tax collections were down $47 million, or 6.3%, for the month.

Inheritance tax and non-tax collections were also less than anticipated in May. Inheritance collections were $7 million, or 10%, below estimate, while non-tax collections came in $4 million, or 2.5%, short of projections.  May non-tax collections included the first $99 million of table game license fees, with the rest of the payments likely to come in June.

Realty transfer and the combination of beer, liquor, and cigarette taxes both exceeded estimate in May. In total, the Commonwealth received about $13 million more of these taxes than expected.