Revenue Tracker: June Collections Come in Above Estimate
July 1, 2010
Revenue collections for the 2009-10 fiscal year ended on a more positive than expected note. For the first time since April 2008 - 26 months ago - General Fund revenue collections exceeded estimate, beating targets by $58.3 million in June. For the fiscal year, General Fund collections were still significantly short of estimate - $1.176 billion, or 4.1%.
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania General Fund Revenue, Fiscal Year 2009-10
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| Preliminary Estimate to Actual, Fiscal Year 2009-10 | |||||||
| Jan 10 | Feb 10** | Mar 10** | Apr 10** | May 10** | Jun 10** | Total** | |
| Estimate | $2,242,100.00 | $1,591,900.00 | $4,147,000.00 | $3,310,300.00 | $1,929,500.00 | $2,943,500.00 | $28,824,700.00 |
| Actual | $2,121,856.00 | $1,489,643.00 | $3,904,042.00 | $2,920,078.00 | $1,804,619.00 | $3,001,800.00 | $27,648,282.00 |
| Monthly Difference | ($120,244.00) | ($102,257.00) | ($242,958.00) | ($390,222.00) | ($124,881.00) | $58,300.00 | |
| Cumulative Difference | ($374,400.00) | ($476,657.00) | ($719,615.00) | ($1,109,837.00) | ($1,234,718.00) | ($1,176,418.00) | |
| Fiscal Year-to-Date Percent Difference from Estimate | -4.1% | ||||||
| Comparison to Fiscal Year 2008-09 | |||||||
| January | February | March | April | May | June | Total | |
| Actual FY 2008-09 | $2,173,751.00 | $1,502,249.00 | $3,873,311.00 | $2,951,980.00 | $1,613,248.00 | $2,257,571.00 | $25,529,806.00 |
| Actual FY 2009-10 | $2,121,856.00 | $1,489,643.00 | $3,904,042.00 | $2,920,078.00 | $1,804,619.00 | $3,001,800.00 | $27,648,282.00 |
| Monthly Difference | ($51,895.00) | ($12,606.00) | $30,731.00 | ($31,902.00) | $191,371.00 | $744,229.00 | |
| Cumulative Difference | $1,196,653.00 | $1,184,047.00 | $1,214,778.00 | $1,182,876.00 | $1,374,247.00 | $2,118,476.00 | |
| Fiscal Year-to-Date Percent Difference from 2008-09 | 8.3% | ||||||
** - Estimates re-certified in January 2010 based on the passage of Act 1, 2010 (table games). This legislation is expected to add $84.2 million in non-tax revenue between February and June 2010.
Download the Revenue Tracker table for the full 2009-10 fiscal year
Tax collections ended the fiscal year at $24.9 billion, which is $384 million, or 1.5%, less than was collected in 2008-09. Total revenue, including $2.7 billion in non-tax revenue (including gaming licenses, transfers from other funds and interest income) is $27.6 billion.
The lion’s share of the surplus in June is due to last-minute collection of table games licenses, which brought in $66 million in June and $379 million for the year. That put non-tax revenue over estimate by $57.6 million for the month.
The state’s two primary taxes - the personal income tax and sales tax - both modestly exceeded estimate (by 0.3% and 1%, respectively) in June, as well.
June's collections also included $234 million collected through Pennsylvania's tax amnesty program. It was unclear how the revenue collected through that program was distributed across tax types in the monthly collections.
Several months of positive results are needed before declaring that the state is on its way to a better fiscal footing, but this could be a tentative start.
According to administration officials, the 2010-11 budget, which awaits Governor Rendell’s signature, assumes revenue growth of 3.3% over the year just ended.
