August Revenues Come in $7 Million Above Estimate

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September 1, 2010

Spurred by stronger than expected sales tax receipts, total General Fund revenues exceeded estimates for August by $7 million, or 0.4%. Through the first two months of 2010-11, General Fund revenues are $6 million, or 0.2%, over estimate.

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania General Fund Revenue, Fiscal Year 2010-11
(in $ thousands)
Preliminary Estimate to Actual, Fiscal Year 2010-11
  Jul 10 Aug 10 Total
Estimate $1,694,300 $1,799,300 $3,493,600
Actual $1,693,246 1,806,470 $3,499,716
Monthly Difference ($1,054) 7,170  
Cumulative Difference ($1,054) 6,116  
Fiscal Year-to-Date Percent Difference from Estimate 0.2%  
 
Comparison to Fiscal Year 2009-10
  July August Total
Actual FY 2009-10 $1,650,885 $1,605,503 $3,256,388
Actual FY 2010-11 $1,693,246 1,806,470 $3,499,716
Monthly Difference $42,361 200,967  
Cumulative Difference $42,361 243,328  
Fiscal Year-to-Date Percent Difference from 2009-10 7.5%  
Download a PDF of the 2010-11 Revenue Tracker with revenue projections for the full fiscal year.

A Good Month for Three Tax Streams

Sales tax, the General Fund’s largest revenue source in August, brought in $701 million, which exceeded the monthly estimate by $35 million, or 5.2%. This may be a sign of modestly increasing consumer confidence.

Also exceeding estimate in August were “other” taxes (cigarette, malt beverage, liquor, and table games). Collectively, these taxes were $1.5 million higher than expected in August.

Finally, inheritance tax collections were modestly higher than estimate for the second straight month.

Four Revenue Sources Fall Short

Personal income tax collections were $651 million in August, $12 million, or 1.9%, short of estimate.

Realty transfer tax receipts plunged in August, falling $14 million, or 37%, below estimate for the month.  Housing sales have fallen off sharply since the end of the federal homebuyer's tax credit.

Corporate taxes were $0.8 million, or 1.9%, short of the revenue target in August, which is historically the smallest month for corporate tax collections.

And non-tax revenue collections were $2 million, or 1%, below expectations in August.

Fiscal Year Off to a Better Start Than Last Year

For the fiscal year, General Fund tax collections are outpacing those a year ago by $58 million, or 1.8%. The increase is largely attributable to an increase in sales tax receipts in 2010-11. Higher cigarette tax rates, effective November 2009, and the introduction of table games in July 2010 also have contributed to the increase in tax collections over last year.